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按照花旗(Citi)的說法，大宗商品超級(jí)周期可能已經(jīng)結(jié)束，但沒有經(jīng)濟(jì)體可以代替中國(guó)成為世界工廠。
從現(xiàn)在開始，對(duì)大宗商品的需求將來自一組多元化的地區(qū)，包括印度、中東、拉美、非洲、以及東南亞的東盟(ASEAN)國(guó)家。
但該行表示，這將不足以彌補(bǔ)中國(guó)的放緩，導(dǎo)致全球大宗商品需求增長(zhǎng)放緩，全球貿(mào)易流量減弱。
花旗表示，全球大宗商品需求增長(zhǎng)將顯著低于過去十年。其中，受打擊最大的將是動(dòng)力煤、煉鋼用的鐵礦石以及煉焦煤，原因是它們目前對(duì)中國(guó)制造業(yè)、基建以及房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的敞口巨大。
該行表示，對(duì)于鋁和銅等基礎(chǔ)金屬來說，由于新興市場(chǎng)3%至5%的需求增長(zhǎng)幅度將持續(xù)到2020年代，它們的表現(xiàn)可能會(huì)好一些?；ㄆ熘赋?，即便中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的消費(fèi)基數(shù)較高，多數(shù)大宗商品的需求量仍有可能降低。
這對(duì)自然資源的需求是一個(gè)雙重打擊。一方面，中國(guó)的整體經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)正在放緩。
另一方面，隨著中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的“大宗商品強(qiáng)度”迅速下降，同超級(jí)周期時(shí)代相比，每單位較低增長(zhǎng)產(chǎn)生的金屬和能源需求甚至更低。
花旗表示，對(duì)于中國(guó)來說，要想到2020年把投資在國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)中的占比降低至40%，就必須令投資增幅比GDP增幅低3個(gè)百分點(diǎn)左右，這對(duì)大宗商品需求具有“深遠(yuǎn)影響”。（中國(guó)進(jìn)出口網(wǎng)）
The commodities supercycle may be over but there’s no replacement for China as the world’sfactory, according to Citi.
From now on, commodities demand will come from a diversified group of regions including India,the Middle East, Latin America, Africa and countries belonging to Asean in Southeast Asia.
But this would not be enough to offset China, leading to slower worldwide demand growth forcommodities and weaker global trade flows, the bank said.
Global commodities demand growth will be substantially slower than during the past decade.Hardest hit would be thermal coal, steel iron ore and coking coal, given their exposure toChina’s manufacturing, infrastructure and real estate sectors, Citi said.
base metals such as aluminium and copper are likely to do better with emerging marketdemand growth in the 3-5 per cent range into the 2020s, it said. The bank noted that, even asChina’s economy grows from a higher consumption base, volume demand was likely to be lowerfor most commodities.
For natural resources demand, this is a dual blow. First, overall economic growth in China isslowing.
Second, the commodity intensity of the economic growth is falling rapidly such that eachincrement of lower growth generated even less demand for metals and energy than during thesupercycle.
For China to bring investment share of GDP down to 40 per cent by 2020 would requireinvestment growth about 3 percentage points lower than GDP, which had “profoundimplications” for commodities demand, Citi said.
